2012.12 Dennis Essers and Danny Cassimon | Washing away Original Sin: Vulnerability to Crisis and the Role of Local Currency Bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

This paper starts from the concept of ‘original sin’ to demonstrate that the development of local currency bond markets remains a priority for Sub-Saharan African countries, both as a prevention mechanism against external shocks and to exploit growth-boosting investment opportunities. We present evidence suggesting that in Sub-Saharan Africa, as in other developing country regions, original sin (at least in its domestic form) is today less prevalent than it used to be. An increasing number of African governments now issue non-indexed local currency bonds with tenors of 10 years and more on a regular basis. This is not to say that all is well.

African bond markets often lack liquidity, feature few corporate securities, and have a narrow investor base of commercial banks. Many more hurdles remain to be taken, by African countries themselves and the international community, if we are to further wash away original sin.

Download 2012.12 Dennis Essers and Danny Cassimon | Washing away Original Sin: Vulnerability to Crisis and the Role of Local Currency Bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa

2012.11 Martin Prowse and Zerihune Berhane Weldegebriel | Climate Change Adaptation In Ethiopia: To What Extent Does Social Protection Influence Livelihood Diversification?

Abstract

Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines the impact of the PSNP by using Propensity Score Matching to estimate the effect on income diversification. The results show receiving transfers from the PSNP, on average, increases natural resource extraction (one component of off-farm income). While these results should be treated with caution, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies.

Download 2012.11 Martin Prowse and Zerihune Berhane Weldegebriel | Climate Change Adaptation In Ethiopia: To What Extent Does Social Protection Influence Livelihood Diversification?

2012.10 Omer Kambale Mirembe | Governance of road infrastructure in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Introduction (part of)

During the 1960s and 1970s, many African states chose a means of infrastructure development that was focused largely on the public sector. However, the debt crisis, the substandard performance of public enterprises and poor governance caused many of them to experience socio-economic failure. During the 1980s, proposed recovery solutions included a significant reduction in public expenditure, resulting in a reduction or even suspension of the production of certain public goods and services.

Download 2012.10 Omer Kambale Mirembe | Governance of road infrastructure in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

2012.09 Peter A.G. van Bergeijk | The Millennium Development Goals post 2015: Towards a global social contract

Introduction

This paper deals with the outlook for the interrelated issues of global economic governance and the efficacy of development policies. These are relevant issues in view of the post-2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). My main point is that the formulation of the post-2015 MDGs will have to recognize the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities that follow from the unprecedented growth of the so-called emerging markets since the 1990s. These economies do still have many characteristics of developing countries especially in remote and rural areas, but at the same time have very large modern sectors that compete successfully on the world markets. These successes are reflected in their sharply increasing shares in Gross Planet Product. Indeed, given the current growth slow-down in the advanced economies and the decoupled (and continuing) growth in the so-called BRIICS-countries (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) it is likely that 2015 will mark the historic fact that the developed countries no longer have a majority share in global production (Figure 1). It is therefore clear that the emerging markets will have (and, indeed, should have) a much more substantial role in global governance structures, including the international organizations. The issue at stake is whether this is favorable or unfavorable for global governance. Moreover, it is pertinent to investigate the implications of the changing economic conditions and to seek ways to make the best use of the new geopolitical and geoeconomic realities.

Download 2012.09 Peter A.G. van Bergeijk | The Millennium Development Goals post 2015: Towards a global social contract

2012.08 Stef Vandeginste | L'annulation de la condamnation à mort de Pierre Nkurunziza, Président de la République du Burundi: un commentaire de l'arrêt du 8 juillet 2011 de la Cour Suprême dans l'affaire RPSA 280.

Abstract

On 8 July 2011, the Supreme Court of Burundi annulled the judgment of the Court of Appeal of Bujumbura of 11 February 1998 which convicted to death Pierre Nkurunziza, currently President of the Republic. The analysis of the Supreme Court judgment shows, first of all, that the criminal responsibility of the Head of State is poorly regulated under Burundian law. Secondly, the paper concludes that, in all likelihood, the conviction of Pierre Nkurunziza bythe Court of Appeal of Bujumbura was indeed procedurally grossly irregular. However, although seen from a procedural angle justice has been done, several reasons explain why in the general perception justice has not been seen to be done. These relate essentially to the perceived lack of independence of Burundi’s judiciary and the instrumentalisation of the judicial process to serve political interests. In fact, the procedure may well have been inspired by electoral motivations. However, our analysis also finds that the Supreme Court judgment should not prevent Burundi’s future transitional justice mechanisms from investigating the same case.

Download 2012.08 Stef Vandeginste | L'annulation de la condamnation à mort de Pierre Nkurunziza, Président de la République du Burundi: un commentaire de l'arrêt du 8 juillet 2011 de la Cour Suprême dans l'affaire RPSA 280.

2012.07 Omer Kambale Mirembe | La taxation aux marchés à l'est de la RDC : acteurs et enjeux

Introduction

La république démocratique du Congo (RDC) est dans un processus de décentralisation. Sa constitution consacre aux entités territoriales décentralisées (ETD) la libre administration et l’autonomie de gestion de leurs ressources. Il s’agit des villes, des communes, et des chefferies ou secteurs. Il est dès lors important de s’intéresser au champ fiscal des ces entités qui constitue le principal vivier de leurs ressources propres. Nous utilisons l’expression « fiscalité locale » dans un sens large de taxation locale incluant les impôts, taxes, redevances et droits payés par les contribuables locaux aux administrations locales. Si les provinces disposent d’un certain nombre d’actes imposables en vue de leur autonomie financière, les entités territoriales décentralisées disposent de peu de ressources propres. Parmi les composantes de leur fiscalité locale on retrouve les taxes sur les activités marchandes principalement la taxe annuelle relative à la délivrance de la patente. La fiscalité locale est destinée à financer les entités territoriales décentralisées ; mais elle est évidemment insuffisante. Comme le fait remarquer Gérard Chambas (2001 :11), malgré le vif intérêt pour la décentralisation en Afrique, les collectivités locales disposent des ressources locales faibles. 

Download 2012.07 Omer Kambale Mirembe | La taxation aux marchés à l'est de la RDC : acteurs et enjeux

2012.06 Omer Kambale Mirembe | Taxation and public service provision: Taxes on road transport and fuel in Congo

Introduction (part of)

Public finance literature generally deals with key issues of the fiscal process, public revenue and expenditure (MUSGRAVE R.A., 1969:797). The allocative function is one of the main fiscal tasks of government. Public resources are assigned for the provision and financing of public services. One of the budgetary principles of public finance, the non-assignment rule, prohibits earmarking of a type of public income to finance specific expenditure. All the resources are to be channelized to the Treasury which finances public spending. Then taxpayers should not know for what specifically government uses revenue they had paid. Generally, traditional public finance states that government consumption and investment expenditures are funded from the general budget. According to the article 7 of the Law of July 13th, 2011 all public resources of the DRC finance the total expense without any allocation of their product to a particular spending.

Download 2012.06 Omer Kambale Mirembe | Taxation and public service provision: Taxes on road transport and fuel in Congo

2012.05 Jason Moyer Lee and Martin Prowse | How traceability is restructuring Malawi's tobacco industry

Abstract

This article applies a global value chain framework to tobacco in Malawi. It illuminates how cigarette manufacturers govern the chain and control first-tier suppliers: the leaf merchants. Due to credence and litigation concerns, manufacturers have become obsessed with leaf integrity. Contract farming offers merchants the ability to meet manufacturers’ compliance and traceability requirements. It also offers an opportunity for process and product upgrading by smallholders, but threatens to exclude poorer growers. The article concludes by outlining current contractual practices and the possible role of third parties in this rapid institutional evolution. 

Download 2012.05 Jason Moyer Lee and Martin Prowse | How traceability is restructuring Malawi's tobacco industry

2012.04 Tanvir Mahmud and Martin Prowse | Corruption in Cyclone Preparedness and Relief Efforts in Coastal Bangladesh: Lessons for Climate Adaptation?

Abstract

This article seeks to draw possible lessons for adaptation programmes in Bangladesh by examining whether Cyclone preparedness and relief interventions are subject to corrupt practices. Based on a random sample survey of 278 households, three focus-group discussions and seven key-informant interviews, the article investigates the nature and extent of corruption in pre- and post-disaster interventions in Khulna district before and after Cyclone Aila in May 2009. Ninety nine percent of households reported losses from corruption. Postdisaster interventions (such as food aid and public works schemes) suffered from greater levels, and worse types, of corruption than pre-disaster interventions (such as Cyclone warning systems and disaster-preparedness training). Using an asset-based wealth index created using principal component analysis, the article assesses if corruption affected wealth quartiles differently. Ultra-poor households were affected more by corruption in pre-disaster interventions than wealthier households. In contrast, the wealthiest quartile was affected more by corruption in certain post-disaster interventions, in particular public works and non-governmental interventions.

Download 2012.04  Tanvir Mahmud and Martin Prowse | Corruption in Cyclone Preparedness and Relief Efforts in Coastal Bangladesh: Lessons for Climate Adaptation?

2012.03 Stef Vandeginste | L'éligibilité de l'actuel Président de la République du Burundi aux élections présidentielles de 2015: une analyse juridique.

Abstract

Presidential elections are likely to be held in Burundi in July 2015. Like in several other African countries, a debate has arisen around the eligibility of the incumbent  president at the next presidential elections. This paper offers a legal analysis of the constitutionality of a possible candidacy of President Nkurunziza in 2015. A twofold perspective is adopted. On the one hand, attention is paid to the presidential term limit laid down in the Constitution (including to the provision possibly allowing for a third term). On the other, an analysis is made of the impact of (currently applicable and draft) transitional justice legislation on the possible candidacy of President Nkurunziza. The paper reveals the major impact of the legal (in particular constitutional) status of the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of August 2000. It also highlights the crucial role of the Constitutional Court in clarifying several of the unanswered issues highlighted throughout the paper. More generally, the case-study addressed in this paper shows the complexity of the important linkages between post-conflict elections, peace accords, power-sharing and transitional justice.

Download 2012.03 Stef Vandeginste | L'éligibilité de l'actuel Président de la République du Burundi aux élections présidentielles de 2015: une analyse juridique

2012.02 Dennis Essers | Democracy and External Shock Resilience in Developing Countries Evidence from the Great Recession

Abstract

While some developing countries appear to have been largely unaffected by the Great Recession that originated in advanced economies, others took a severe blow in 2008-2009. A number of recent studies have attempted to explain the observed heterogeneity of developing country growth performances during the latest global financial and economic crisis by linking it to pre-crisis macro-economic and financial country features - with rather mixed success. In this newly emerging body of research, surprisingly little attention has, however, been paid to institutional differences between countries, and the variation in political institutional arrangements more particularly. The current paper takes a first shot at bridging this hiatus by gauging

the impact of democracy on the crisis growth of developing countries. From a theoretical point of view, and as suggested in the political economy literature, democracy could be either growthretarding or growth-enhancing in times of economic crisis, the overall effect ultimately being an empirical question. Using a cross-section sample of more than 100 non-advanced countries and controlling for a range of macroeconomic, financial and standard institutional factors as well as pre-crisis trends, we find evidence suggesting that, on the whole, democratic country features are negatively correlated with growth performance during the 2008-2009 global crisis. Our findings are seemingly robust to the use of various sets of controls, different estimators, several country subsamples and alternative measures of democracy and crisis growth.

Download 2012.02   Dennis Essers |  Democracy and External Shock Resilience in Developing Countries Evidence from the Great Recession

2012.01 Marie Krizelda Songco, Nathalie Holvoet and Liesbeth Inberg | Paris Declaration Country Evaluations: How Solid is the Evidence? META-Evaluation of the Country Evaluations of the Phase II Paris Declaration Evaluation

Abstract

The evaluation of the Paris Declaration (PD) is one of the most important and challenging evaluative undertakings of the past decade in the aid sector. The PD evaluation commissioned by the OECD/DAC Evaluation Network consists of a set of independent crosscountry and donor evaluations which were carried out in two phases. The scope and importance of this evaluation makes it a particularly suitable subject for a meta-evaluation. Our 'evaluation of the evaluation’ complements the official meta-evaluation of the synthesis report in that it assesses all country evaluation reports available in English (15 out of 21 reports) using the OECD/DAC Evaluation Quality Standards. Two research questions are central in our undertaking: Is the quality of the country evaluation reports good enough to be included in the synthesis report? Do the reports properly comply with the evaluation framework to permit comparison of evaluation across countries? The findings of the meta-evaluation demonstrate that comparability of country evaluation reports is satisfactory. The quality of evidence, however, is questionable, due to various limitations and constraints that plagued several country evaluations. Therefore, the inclusion of some of the country reports in the evaluation synthesis report is questionable.


Download 2012.01  Marie Krizelda Songco, Nathalie Holvoet and Liesbeth Inberg | Paris Declaration Country Evaluations: How Solid is the Evidence? META-Evaluation of the Country Evaluations of the Phase II Paris Declaration Evaluation