Models are essential for translating local, experimental insights into real-world predictions. Within the Geobiology group, and in close collaboration with our project partners, we use a combination of bio-geochemical, spatial, and life-cycle models to simulate alkalinity release from sediments, identify promising regions for deployment, and assess the economic and carbon-balance feasibility of coastal ocean alkalinization.
From local insights to global impact
Field studies and incubation experiments provide detailed insight into how alkalinity is generated under specific environmental conditions. But because we cannot sample or simulate every coastal environment on Earth, we use numerical models to scale up this knowledge.
By combining experimental insights with spatial datasets of key environmental and mineral parameters, we can estimate the CO₂ drawdown potential across different regions. These model-based maps reveal where alkalinization would be most effective, allowing us to identify hotspots for coastal ocean alkalinization and evaluate its potential at regional to global scales.
Determining economic and ecological feasibility
In theory, coastal ocean alkalinization works. Its real-world potential, however, depends critically on two questions: How expensive is coastal ocean alkalinization? and How much CO₂ is emitted during the process?
To address these questions, we apply life-cycle analysis (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA).These modelling frameworks follow the full pathway of coastal ocean alkalinization, from sourcing and preparing alkaline materials to delivering them by ship into coastal waters. For each step, we quantify both the financial cost and the associated CO₂ emissions. Summing these up allows us to identify which factors drive the overall cost and carbon footprint of coastal ocean alkalinization and to evaluate under what conditions the approach can deliver a net climate benefit.