Abstract
Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change, with shifting temperature and precipitation patterns affecting farm productivity, profitability, and food security. Understanding the economic impacts of climate change and identifying effective adaptation pathways is crucial for ensuring the resilience of agricultural systems. This PhD research focuses on Italian agriculture, applying a Ricardian modelling approach to estimate the economic consequences of climate change while integrating Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to capture future socio-economic transitions.
The research is structured into four key phases: (1) a global review of Ricardian studies and adaptation trade-offs, (2) empirical application of the Ricardian model to Italian agriculture over two time periods, (3) downscaling the European agricultural SSPs (Eur-Agri-SSPs) to the Italian context, and (4) integrating these socio-economic scenarios into the Ricardian framework to improve climate impact assessments. The project leverages both quantitative economic modelling and stakeholder-driven foresight methods to develop a holistic and policy-relevant approach to climate adaptation.
This PhD is jointly supervised by the University of Pisa and the University of Antwerp, where expertise in environmental and agricultural economics is essential for the final stage of research. However, the current funding covers only the first three years of the PhD, leaving a 12-month funding gap for the final stage, which includes data integration, advanced analysis, and dissertation writing. The BOF DOCPRO1 grant is critical in bridging this gap, allowing for the successful completion of the PhD within the planned timeframe.
Additionally, this research fosters international collaboration between universities, strengthening interdisciplinary partnerships. At the University of Antwerp, the PhD candidate collaborates with both Prof. Steven Van Passel and Dr. Charlotte Fabri, a postdoctoral researcher who will be working on this topic under an MSCA-PF grant at Wageningen University, starting from spring 2026 . This provides opportunities for continued cross-institutional collaboration on climate adaptation. This funding will ensure that the research reaches its full potential, contributing valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in climate adaptation strategies.
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