Abstract
Urban agglomerations and populations are particularly at risk of extreme climate events due to exacerbated climate change and increased population density in cities. In particular, compound hot-dry events, the joint occurrences of heatwaves and droughts, are scarcely studied leaving a critical gap in urban resilience to these complex events. Adaptation of urban environments and mitigation of the causes of climate change play crucial roles in building a sustainable future for our cities and human populations. However, research focusing on adapting our cities are still scarce and fail to include compound hot-dry events. The objective of this research is to develop tools capable of assessing compound hot-dry events in the complex urban context and the impact of adaptation and mitigation plans on these events. First, a model of neighborhood-scale urban climate is developed allowing the first high-resolution assessment of historical urban compound hot-dry events. Secondly, this model serves as a basis to develop a surrogate model of the impact on the urban climate of different city-wide adaptation and mitigation plans under various future climate scenarios, providing the first assessment in the field. Lastly, the surrogate model is used to provide recommendations of efficient urban plans considering trade-offs between different objectives and future climate uncertainty.
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