Abstract
The world is on a wide trend of de-globalisation. Similar to the Cold War, international trade and investment have already fragmented along geopolitical lines so that the US- and China-centered blocs of countries started to trade more within each bloc relative to the trade across the blocs (Gopinath et al. 2025). This project proposes to shed light on three of the key issues determining the shape of the future world economy. First, the effect of trade sanctions against Russia on the "bystander" countries. In particular, whether it has brought them closer to China or to the US. Second, estimate whether the boundaries of world export markets go along countries, regions, or the invoicing currency boundaries. Third, to evaluate how many more geopolitical shocks can the US dollar survive before the yuan becomes a competing global currency in a part of the world.
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