Research Tom Sauer

Abstract

During my academic career the main focus has been nuclear weapons policy and politics. In second order, I have dealt with regional security, more in particular in Europe (and to a lesser extent Asia), including the role of alliances. Lastly, I have been analyzing the war between Russia and Ukraine since 2014. The problem with focusing on these three (related) research lines is that one becomes absorbed by the nitty-gritty details on a daily basis with the risk of neglecting and therefore missing the overall picture. International politics is characterized by waves of stability and instability. The main factor determining the level of stability is the changing balance of power between regional powers. Arguably, also today, we are living in a period of turbulence due to a changing balance of power: China and the Global South seem to be rising, the US and the West are losing power, at least relatively speaking. The main research question of the first objective therefore becomes: how is the world evolving in terms of balance of power ? A second group of research questions – beyond those about polarity - have to do with the level of cooperation between regional powers. More in particular, the question will be whether the relationship between regional powers will be determined by multilateralism (= high level of cooperation) or unilateralism (= weak level of cooperation) ? The research sabbatical would allow me to take the time to read both classic works (for which I did not have the time) and recent academic articles. At the same time, a research sabbatical makes it possible to spend a lengthy period of time in another country. It may deepen existing research collaborations with colleagues abroad and establish new ones. An obvious location for carrying out this research is the capital of the US, the existing hegemon. To be part of the foreign policy community in Washington DC during one semester (three months) will broaden my worldview and deepen my knowledge which will help answering the higher mentioned research questions. As the rising part of the world is the Asia-Pacific region, I also plan a three-month research stay in Japan (Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo). Like DC, Tokyo is a regional hub of universities and think-tanks. The second objective of the research sabbatical (that chronologically follows upon the first) is to analyze the consequences of the changing balance of power for the topics of the three existing research lines: nuclear arms control, disarmament and proliferation; the regional security systems and related alliances; and the war in Ukraine. The choice of the two research stays is also in function of the second research objective. With respect to the topic of nuclear weapons, both the US and Japan are unique. The former is the only state that has used nuclear weapons; the latter the only state that has been bombed with nuclear weapons. The changing balance of power in the world and its economic and security-related consequences will also have a substantial impact on the future of the EU, which will be the focus of the third objective. The Leta and Draghi reports for the EU are excellent starting points for further research. The second Trump administration and the war in Ukraine are further potential catalysts for change. These and other trends point to the necessity of deepening integration in the EU in order to use the power of the number on a global scale. The question of strategic autonomy will become central. This analysis will be the focus of the Dutch-speaking book that I am planning to write for a broader audience. During the six months that I will be in Belgium, I will have time to conduct interviews in Brussels (both at the EU and NATO). I am also planning to make short-term visits to Paris, Berlin and Hamburg, and London for interviews with officials at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs/Defense as well as colleagues.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

Over the past decade, the automatization of warfare has spurred a thorough yet mainly speculative academic debate. The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza demonstrate that the discussion should no longer be limited to the future. Technological advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning enable increasingly complex forms of human-machine interaction in various military practices, from actual combat operations to planning and organizing. We notice a global push towards more autonomy and speed of military (weapon)systems. That push is partly driven by the increasing influence of the high-tech software companies that develop these systems. AI-based software programs can connect many military hardware systems and bring them under the command of a single operator, providing them with unprecedented levels of autonomy. Whereas existing research primarily examines how states employ AI and machine learning in the conduct of war, this project focuses on the new actors of the contemporary battlefield. More specifically, the project examines how European high-tech software companies, or tech startups, construct and entrench new means and norms of warfare.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Hoijtink Marijn
• Co-promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The goal of this project is to analyse how organizations deal with the danger of insider threat for employees (= after care), and providing recommendations to improve the existing practices, both in general and for specific organisations, taking into account the existing legal framework. The research includes a literature analysis about security culture with a specific focus on insider threat; listing good practices from the literature; collecting data in specific organisations; comparing the literature with the collected data; providing recommendations for a better insider threat policy of specific organisations, and more in general; publishing the research conclusions.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The general objective of this research project is to analyze the insider threat in sensitive sectors in our country and to provide some recommendations to deal more adequately with this threat. Thousands of employees are yearly screened on trustworthiness. Due to the terrorist attacks in our country, the numbers of employees to be screened will increase substantially. One of the problems is that radicalization can happen rather quickly, also after a security clearance has been given. As a result, there is need for a better "after care".

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The goal of this project is to describe the nuclear disarmament debate in Southern Europe ('Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Cyprus and Malta), since the conclusion of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (2017)

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The goal of this project is to find out to what extent the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (2017) that will enter into force in January 2021 has already impact in NATO member states like Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and France.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The general objective of this research project is to analyze the insider threat in sensitive sectors in our country and to provide some recommendations to deal more adequately with this threat. Thousands of employees are yearly screened on trustworthiness. Due to the terrorist attacks in our country, the numbers of employees to be screened will increase substantially. One of the problems is that radicalization can happen rather quickly, also after a security clearance has been given. As a result, there is need for a better "after care".

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The general objective of this research project is to analyze the insider threat in sensitive sectors in our country and to provide some recommendations to deal more adequately with this threat. Thousands of employees are yearly screened on trustworthiness. Due to the terrorist attacks in our country, the numbers of employees to be screened will increase substantially. One of the problems is that radicalization can happen rather quickly, also after a security clearance has been given. As a result, there is need for a better "after care".

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The objective of this research project is threefold: 1) to analyse the threat of nuclear transports in Belgium; 2) to describe how this threat is communicated towards the general public; 3) to do further suggestions to improve the communication in this regard.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

This report is drafted in the framework of the ISF-funded project 'PoMigra' (= Politically motivated crime in the light of current migration flows). It provides a systematic literature review of the research published between 2012 and 2017 on different types of politically biased crime in Belgium, and what research stated about the data collection methodologies on these crimes by law enforcement agencies in Belgium. To be precise, we have collected and analysed research publications related to (a) Salafist/jihadist crimes, (b) xenophobic crimes, (c) extremist crimes and (d) inter-migrant crimes. This report thereby enables a better understanding about contemporary research on these topics in Belgium, which is essential in better understanding its challenges, threats, and links to the issue of migration. It first became clear that the theme Salafist/jihadist crime accounts for the bulk of research on politically motivated crimes in Belgium. Different forms of politically biased crime – such as xenophobic crime and extremism – receive substantially less attention by researchers in Belgium. Moreover, it became clear that there is hardly any work published on left-wing extremism, and inter-migrant crimes with an political bias. These are substantial knowledge gaps in the literature on this theme. Second, the available research tends to focus on describing the nature and causes of these phenomena. It did, however, became clear that neither of these two issues is an easy task. The conceptual and practical ambiguity of different forms of politically biased crime complicate this endeavor. This impacts assessments on the size and causes of this phenomenon (especially with respect to xenophobic and extremist crimes). There are few objective datasets available. Some of the overarching lessons that are often drawn by research on this topic, however, focus on the importance of a locally embedded, comprehensive and inclusive approach in preventing these types of politically motivated crimes. Finally, with respect to the data collection methodologies by law enforcement authorities, it comes as no surprise that we did not found a lot of research on the data collection methodologies with respect to these themes. In general, it became clear that it is hard to define and grasp the phenomenon of politically biased crime empirically. Both law enforcement authorities and research grapple with this problem.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The project wants to approach the Humanitarian Initiative with respect to nuclear elimination from the theoretical perspective of framing. More in particular it wants to find out how and why the effectiveness of the rhetorical frame of the Humanitarian Initiative around nuclear disarmament on public opinion differs between the UK and the US.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The project wants to find out to what extent current migration flows influence the communication about crime and terrorism: 1) in the Belgian media (journals in the 2012-2016 timeframe); 2) in political party programs; 3) and on websites of some specific extremist organisations. Case-study: Belgium. The project (on demand of OCAD-OCAM) is part of the European project Pomigra.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

This project wants to find out how stigmatization can help in delegitimizing nuclear weapons and the role they play in the current defense policies of the nuclear weapon states. Assuming that norms play a significant role in international politics, the project will focus first of all on how stigma (in general) can play a role in changing policy. Different reactions by those who are stigmatized can be listed. In its last part, the project implements the notion of stigmatization to the current Humanitarian Initiative that aims to delegitimize the role of nuclear weapons, including in the form of a Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty. The hope is that by stigmatizing nuclear weapons and their possessor states, a societal and political debate inside the Nuclear Weapons States will be started up that may end up in changing their defense policy fundamentally.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

This project represents a formal research agreement between UA and on the other hand FANC. UA provides FANC research results mentioned in the title of the project under the conditions as stipulated in this contract.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

The aim of this research project is to analyse the motivations of states that are interested in acquiring nuclear weapons (or not). In the past, most research focussed on the supply side (safeguards of IAEA). More research is needed with respect to the demand side. More in particular, the following research questions will be dealt with: 1. Why do states want to acquire nuclear weapons ? 2. Why do states decide to halt their nuclear weapons programs, or why do states not pursue nuclear weapons programs in the first place ? 3. Are there patterns of decision-making that can be detected inside those states that are relevant to the questions above ? 4. Which non-technical indicators can be detected that can be useful in predicting proliferation ? 5. What policy recommendations can be drawn from the outcome of this analysis ? After working out a theoretical framework based on the existing literature, the objective consists of building a model with non-technical indicators that can be used for predicting proliferation. Both the theoretical framework and the model will be tested and further adapted thanks to the detailed study of a few case-studies (Belgium, Sweden, Argentina, South-Africa).

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

This research project seeks to reflect on the meaning of peace, and on the role of peace education in bringing about international peace. We will suggest an understanding of peace as 'disciplined order' as opposed to its conventional definition (in IR theory) as the 'absence of war.' Inspiration is drawn from classical political theory, strands of which have highlighted the role of education in shaping virtuous citizens, and consequently in bringing about a peaceful society. The empirical validity of the model will be tested in the case of the reigning North-Atlantic peace.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom
• Fellow: Kustermans Jorg

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

This project seeks to elucidate the meaning of peace. It is hypothesised that education and power are central concepts and practices for understanding the establishment and consolidation of peace. Support for this claim will be sought at three levels: political theory, international relations theory, and history. European peace and security will be our case-study.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

• International Politics

Project type(s)

• Research Project

Abstract

Coercive diplomacy aims at convincing the opponent to halt his action by backing one's demand with a threat to punishment, possibly including the limited use of violence. Factors that make that coercive diplomacy is effective, are: the motivation of both parties (in absolute terms), which is related to the size of the demand and the size of the related interests; asymmetry with respect to motivation and interests (in relative terms); the fear (by the opponent) of escalation; sensitivity to sanctions by the opponent; the credibility of the one that threatens, which on its turn depends on the means available and his reputation; the support of public opinion, both internally and externally; the role of time (for instance ultimatum); and the availability of positive incentives. The research question is dual: 1) To what extent is coercive diplomacy an effective instrument for the EU Foreign and Security Policy ? In other words, to what extent correspond the characteristics of the EU with the higher mentioned factors that determine the success rate of coercive diplomacy ? 2) To what extent does the possible succesful use of coercive diplomacy by the EU the existing theoretical framework of coercive diplomacy ? More in particular, are economic instruments (like economic sanctions) enough, or should there be a military stick available ? The analysis is of a qualitative nature; more in particular we will use the case-study method on the basis of a review of the literature and interviews. Case-study: the EU policy vis-à-vis the nuclear program of Iran since 2003.

Researcher(s)

• Promoter: Bursens Peter
• Fellow: Sauer Tom

Research team(s)

Project website

Project type(s)

• Research Project