The aim of this research project is to analyse the motivations of states that are interested in acquiring nuclear weapons (or not). In the past, most research focussed on the supply side (safeguards of IAEA). More research is needed with respect to the demand side.
More in particular, the following research questions will be dealt with:
1. Why do states want to acquire nuclear weapons ?
2. Why do states decide to halt their nuclear weapons programs, or why do states not pursue nuclear weapons programs in the first place ?
3. Are there patterns of decision-making that can be detected inside those states that are relevant to the questions above ?
4. Which non-technical indicators can be detected that can be useful in predicting proliferation ?
5. What policy recommendations can be drawn from the outcome of this analysis ?
After working out a theoretical framework based on the existing literature, the objective consists of building a model with non-technical indicators that can be used for predicting proliferation. Both the theoretical framework and the model will be tested and further adapted thanks to the detailed study of a few case-studies (Belgium, Sweden, Argentina, South-Africa).