How accurate are politicians’ estimations of public opinion?
The main finding of POLPOP I was that, contrary to expectations, politicians were no better at estimating public support for policy proposals than ordinary citizens (Walgrave et al., 2023). Interestingly, there are patterns to these misperceptions. Politicians perceive public opinion to be more right-wing than it actually is on cultural and economic issues, but not necessarily on immigration (Pilet et al., 2023). Further, politicians often mistakenly assume that voters agree with them, particularly voters who support their party (Sevenans et al., 2023).
Moreover, politicians form better estimates of public opinion on issues their party ‘owns’ (e.g. Green parties and the environment) (Varone and Helfer, 2022). Politicians were also better at estimating public opinion on issues that they thought voters considered to be more important (Butler et al., 2024). Further, politicians with greater ties to citizen groups form more accurate perceptions (Eichenberger et al., 2022).
Where do politicians’ perceptions of public opinion come from?
Politicians’ mainly source information about public opinion from direct contact with citizens and traditional news media, and consider social media and polling to be much less useful (Walgrave & Soontjens, 2023). However, politicians also tend to perceive the news media as being slightly biased against their party, particularly senior politicians and those from right-wing parties (Soontjens et al., 2021).
Do politicians feel they are held accountable by voters?
Yes they do! Most politicians over-estimate how much voters are aware of their actions, particularly because they over-generalising the feedback that they receive from more engaged citizens (Soontjens, 2021). Politicians from populist parties and those who are directly elected, rather than being elected as part of a party list, feel more monitored by voters (Soontjens, 2022b). Contrary to expectations, more senior politicians who are more visible to the public do not feel more monitored by voters (Soontjens, 2022b).
These accountability perceptions matter: politicians who more strongly believe that voters are aware of what they do and will hold them accountable for it at the ballot box interact more frequently with ordinary citizens, discuss public opinion more often with their fellow colleagues, and spend more time collecting public opinion information (Soontjens and Walgrave, 2021). And, we find, the more politicians feel unsure about their re-election, the more they respond to voter preferences (Soontjens and Sevenans, 2022).
What are politicians’ policy preferences and where do they come from?
We also tested politicians’ policy preferences, and whether these were influenced by personality type. We found that politicians are generally less supportive of redistributive policies than citizens, regardless of politicians’ ideology (Helfer et al., 2021). Politicians who are more open to experience hold more liberal economic and social policies, while more extravert politicians tend to hold more conservative economic positions (Amsalen and Sheffer, 2023). Further, politicians who score higher on conscientiousness and spend more time on constituency work are more likely to hold positions that are different from the position of their party colleagues but which align with their party supporters’ preferences.
Other publications from the project
Butler, C., Walgrave, S., Soontjens, K., & Loewen, P. J. (2024). Politicians are better at estimating public opinion when they think it is more salient. Party Politics, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/13540688241239625
Höhmann, Daniel and Corinna Kroeber. (2024 ). Personality and Political Representation—How Personality Traits Shape MPs' Attitudes Toward Gender Equality. Legislative Studies Quarterly 00(0): 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/lsq.12475.
Sevenans, J., Walgrave, S., Jansen, A., Soontjens, K., Bailer, S., Brack, N., Breunig, C., Helfer, L., Loewen, P., Pilet, J.-B., Sheffer, L., Varone, F. and Vliegenthart, R. (2023). "Projection in Politicians' Perceptions of Public Opinion." Political Psychology, 44: 1259-1279. https://doi.org/10.1111/pops.12900
Bundi, P., Varone, F., Loewen, P., & Breunig, C. (2023). "Conscientiousness of representatives and agreement with their party positions." The Journal of Legislative Studies, 1-20. doi 10.1080/13572334.2023.2233207
Amsalem, Eran, and Lior Sheffer. 2023. “Personality and the Policy Positions of Politicians.” Political Psychology 44(1):119–38. doi: 10.1111/pops.12821.
Walgrave, S., & Soontjens, K. (2023). "How politicians learn about public opinion. Research & Politics." 10(3). doi: 10.1177/205316802312006
Helfer, Luzia, Nathalie Giger, and Christian Breunig. 2023. “Fairness of Inequality and Support for Redistribution: Directly Comparing Citizens and Legislators.” West European Politics 1–22. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2023.2170852.
Pilet, Jean-Benoît., Sheffer, Lior., Helfer Luzia., Varone, Frédéric., Vliegenthart, Rens. & Walgrave, Stefaan. (2023) "Do Politicians Outside the United States Also Think Voters are More Conservative than they Really Are? A Comparative Study of the Conservative Bias in Elites’ Perception of Public Opinion." American Political Science Review 1-9. doi:10.1017/S0003055423000527
Sheffer, Lior, Peter John Loewen, Stefaan Walgrave, Stefanie Bailer, Christian Breunig, Luzia Helfer, Jean-Benoit Pilet, Frédéric Varone, and Rens Vliegenthart. 2023. “How Do Politicians Bargain? Evidence from Ultimatum Games with Legislators in Five Countries.” American Political Science Review 1–19. doi: 10.1017/S0003055422001459.
Walgrave, Stefaan, Arno Jansen, Julie Sevenans, Karolin Soontjens, Jean-Benoit Pilet, Nathalie Brack, Frédéric Varone, Luzia Helfer, Rens Vliegenthart, Toni van der Meer, Christian Breunig, Stefanie Bailer, Lior Sheffer, and Peter John Loewen. 2023. “Inaccurate Politicians: Elected Representatives’ Estimations of Public Opinion in Four Countries.” The Journal of Politics 85(1):209–22. doi: 10.1086/722042.
Soontjens, K. (2023). Voters don’t care too much about policy: How politicians conceive of voting motives. Research & Politics, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680231176180
Eichenberger, Steven, Frédéric Varone, and Luzia Helfer. 2022. “Do Interest Groups Bias MPs’ Perception of Party Voters’ Preferences?” Party Politics 28(3):567–79. doi: 10.1177/1354068821997079.
Soontjens, Karolin. 2022a. “Do Politicians Anticipate Voter Control? A Comparative Study of Representatives’ Accountability Beliefs.” European Journal of Political Research 61(3):699–717. doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.12481.
Soontjens, Karolin. 2022b. “Inside the Party’s Mind: Why and How Parties Are Strategically Unresponsive to Their Voters’ Preferences.” Acta Politica 57(4):731–52. doi: 10.1057/s41269-021-00220-9.
Soontjens, Karolin, and Julie Sevenans. 2022. “Electoral Incentives Make Politicians Respond to Voter Preferences: Evidence from a Survey Experiment with Members of Parliament in Belgium.” Social Science Quarterly 103(5):1125–39. doi: 10.1111/ssqu.13186.
Varone, Frédéric, and Luzia Helfer. 2022. “Understanding MPs’ Perceptions of Party Voters’ Opinion in Western Democracies.” West European Politics 45(5):1033–56. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2021.1940647.
Walgrave, Stefaan, Karolin Soontjens, and Julie Sevenans. 2022. Politicians’ Reading of Public Opinion and Its Biases. Oxford University Press.
Walgrave, Stefaan, Karolin Soontjens, and Frédéric Varone. 2022. “Partitocracy and Intra-Party Ideological Agreement.” Pp. 165–183 in The winter of democracy. Vol. 6, edited by P. Baudewyns. Presses Universitaires: Louvain-La-Neuve.
Helfer, Luzia, Flurina Wäspi, and Frédéric Varone. 2021. “Does Direct Democracy Enhance Politicians’ Perceptions of Constituents’ Opinions? Evidence from Switzerland.” Swiss Political Science Review 27(4):695–711. doi: 10.1111/spsr.12495.
Ketelaars, P., & Sevenans, J. (2021). It’s a Matter of Timing. How the Timing of Politicians’ Information Subsidies Affects What Becomes News. Political Communication, 38(3), 260–280. https://doi.org/10.1080/10584609.2020.1763528
Sevenans, J. (2021). How Public Opinion Information Changes Politicians’ Opinions and Behavior. Political Behavior, 43(4), 1801–1823. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11109-021-09715-9
Soontjens, Karolin. 2021. “The Awareness Paradox: (Why) Politicians Overestimate Citizens’ Awareness of Parliamentary Questions and Party Initiatives.” Representation 57(1):75–94. doi: 10.1080/00344893.2020.1785538.
Soontjens, Karolin, Annelien Van Remoortere, and Stefaan Walgrave. 2021. “The Hostile Media: Politicians’ Perceptions of Coverage Bias.” West European Politics 44(4):991–1002. doi: 10.1080/01402382.2020.1792671.
Soontjens, Karolin, and Stefaan Walgrave. 2021. “Listening to the People: Politicians’ Investment in Monitoring Public Opinion and Their Beliefs about Accountability.” The Journal of Legislative Studies 1–21. doi: 10.1080/13572334.2021.2011649.