Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development

Projects

Ongoing projects

Integration of Social and Environmental Criteria for the Remediation of PFAS Contamination (INSERT). 15/12/2024 - 14/12/2027

Abstract

INSERT aims to study the social context and sustainability of various (innovative) remediation techniques, with a focus on PFAS. This will be done both in a comparative perspective, e.g. in cases where choices have to be made about the techniques that will be used, and for the techniques themselves. We aim to develop a harmonised evaluation framework for the sustainability of new remediation technologies, in order to be able to provide advice during the development of new remediation technologies on how these can be further developed into their most sustainable configuration. In addition, we provide an evaluation of the current frameworks and procedures for the evaluation of technical, economic, environmental and social impact of remediation projects, we look at how the new techniques score according to these procedures and why, and we make suggestions to optimise the assessment process.

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  • Research Project

DEER: Demand-side measures to Enhance well-being and foster Environmental footprint Reduction. 01/10/2024 - 30/09/2028

Abstract

This project builds further on the work done for the CE Center (Circular Economy Policy Research Center) regarding the downscaling of the material footprint target for Flanders to specific products, processes and needs. This work is currently elaborated by the STEN group in Ghent University (led by Professor Dewulf) in collaboration with the EnvEcon group of University of Antwerp (led by Professor Van Passel). The project will also keep close ties with the E4BE project (Brain-Belspo) on a just and acceptable climate tax shift for Belgium, for which professor Bachus is one of the co-promoters. In addition, the project has linkages to parts of two Horizon Europe projects that Prof. Bleys and Dr. Silvi work on, namely: ToBe (Towards a sustainable wellbeing economy: integrated policies and transformative indicators) and MERGE (Measuring what matters: Improving usability and accessibility of policy frameworks and indicators for multidimensional well-being through collaboration). To mitigate climate change, a fast reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is required. Although currently changes in the supply side have attracted most attention, these measures are insufficient to deliver on the Paris agreement goals. Recent research featured in the latest IPCC report highlights the potential of demand-side measures. Such measures target changes in consumption patterns and can complement current supply side measures, reducing emissions up to 40 to 70% by 2050. The link between our consumption and well-being is not straightforward. Consumption corridors provide a floor level given by a sufficient level of human need fulfilment, and a ceiling level, above which consumption is unsustainable. Some consumption corridors have already been calculated, but most of these are examples of one product fulfilling only one human need. In addition, which demand-side measures would be required to move within these consumption corridors and how they could be implemented has not been assessed yet. In the DEER project, the effects of demand-side measures on human well-being will be analysed from an environmental, social, economic and policy perspectives. For this, the literature on human needs will be reviewed linking the different human needs to their required products. Products/ services related to thermal comfort and mobility in the region of Flanders will be selected. Sufficiency levels for the human needs will be defined and quantified. Applicable demand-side measures will be identified and their impact on carbon and material footprints of the selected needs will be assessed. In parallel, for the selected demand-side measures, economic and social assessments will be performed, including the analysis of consumers' willingness to adapt. Lastly, the demand-side measures will be fit in policy instruments and mixes that can achieve optimal environmental effectiveness while minimising undesirable side effects will be assessed and presented as policy recommendations.

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  • Research Project

Death Care: Building the framework for a sustainable funeral industry in a superdiverse society. 01/10/2024 - 30/09/2028

Abstract

Recent events such as the Covid19-pandemic and controversy around Muslim cemeteries have revealed the important and increasingly complicated task of the funeral sector in Belgium. The funeral sector is a relatively small yet important societal sector where every member of society at one point or another passes through. Major societal changes (like climatechange induced catastrophes, growing cultural diversity, secularisation) affect the decisions and services that funeral undertakers have to take and provide, and reveal the shortcomings in education, in deontological codes, and in legal frameworks. The diversification of funeral preferences combined with heightened awareness of the vulnerability of the sector during public health catastrophes leads to a sense of urgency in the funeral sector (in Belgium). This proposal identifies four sources of challenges: sociological changes, environmental concerns, public health crises and juridical gaps. With a comprehensive, interactive and multi-disciplinary approach the proposal aims to contribute to the professionalisation of the funeral sector through a more accurate juridical framework, policy protocols for future pandemics, the design of an ethical committee for the sector, the juridical and sociological accommodation of funeral needs of minorities (with a special focus on the Muslim community which is an important minority in Belgium), a collective ethical reflection on the environmental impact of our funeral choices, an action plan to making the funeral industry conform with climate neutral European regulation and a transferral of gained insights through education modules (tailored at the funeral industry) and a podcast (on the ethics of funeral practices in a superdiverse sustainable society) and a broadcast (on changing funeral preferences and societal problems) on national newssite +radio (for the wide audience).

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  • Research Project

Twinning for research excellence in sustainable development (TWIN2SUSTAIN). 01/10/2024 - 30/09/2027

Abstract

Cyprus is a hotspot of the climate crisis with the effects being more intense and difficult to cope; to that end, climate change in the Eastern Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa (EMMENA) region has been an object of extensive research. However, this research did not address to a satisfactory extent the societal aspects of climate change in the EMMENA region that fall under the Sustainable Development (SD) field. Although being very active in relevant research areas of Sustainable Development and in particular, water, renewable energy and oceanography, UCY has not achieved to address the socioeconomic aspects of Sustainable Development research. It is rather positioned in a fragmented fashion in the SD research field by having research teams involved in relevant projects and undertakings but not in a concerted way, thus currently tackling important research topics sporadically and without coherence. This gap is not limited to climate change-related fields but on other aspects of SD such as gender equality, innovation law, science diplomacy and economic development, poverty reduction and income inequalities. The TWIN2SUSTAIN project aims to address this gap in this crucial research area by facilitating a partnership with two advanced partners in the SD field, UNU-MERIT and UANTWERP, in order to advance and consolidate in a multidisciplinary context all related research activities at the University of Cyprus (UCY), with main focus on the socioeconomic aspects of SD. This vision will be realised by applying for a Horizon Europe/Twinning grant, in conjunction and under the aegis of the Research and Innovation Service of UCY and with many different UCY academic departments and research units engaged. By linking UCY with these internationally leading partners in SD, TWIN2SUSTAIN will stimulate research excellence and international visibility of UCY, while improving the networking efficiency and innovation in this growing and very important field

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  • Research Project

Safeguarding Soil with Plants: Exploring Phytoremediation for PFAS Cleanup. 19/02/2024 - 18/02/2028

Abstract

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are synthetic pollutants extensively used in various industrial and consumer products, leading to their widespread presence in the environment and organisms. Given the associated human health risks and significant ecological impact of PFAS contamination in soil, remediation is imperative. However, PFAS exhibit high persistence, posing substantial challenges to effective remediation. Current techniques target only select compounds, are costly, invasive, and lack efficiency in terrestrial environments. Previous studies showed the ability of plants to accumulate PFAS, suggesting phytoextraction as a promising alternative soil remediation method. Yet, knowledge regarding factors influencing plant PFAS uptake remains limited, with current research mainly focusing on single plant species. This project aims to identify general plant characteristics influencing PFAS uptake and optimal soil conditions for such uptake. Furthermore, we will assess the potential of earthworms (Lumbricus terrestris) to enhance the remediation potential of terrestrial plants. These objectives will be pursued through greenhouse experiments and validated by field experiments conducted near diverse PFAS-contaminated sites and under varying climatic conditions. This research will contribute to the understanding of the bioavailability of PFAS in soils to plants and the development of cost-effective and sustainable remediation strategies for PFAS- contaminated soil.

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  • Research Project

Dynamic Integrated Assessment Methods for the sustainable Development of the Subsurface. 01/10/2023 - 30/09/2027

Abstract

The Campine Basin is a unique geological hotspot, that is increasingly being targeted to achieve energy security and environmental objectives. However, subsurface space is limited and competition between subsurface usages is increasing. To review policies for planning and managing potential resource interactions (either adverse or beneficial) and to set priorities if needed, it is key to create methods for a detailed hydrogeological characterization of these subsurface interactions, accounting for associated above-ground social, environmental, and economic impacts. Therefore, we unite expertise of (inter)national hydrogeological research units to develop dynamic, loosely coupled hydrogeological models that allow for large scale simulations, while remaining accurate for a single activity, and that are able to handle uncertain geological contexts. In addition, we will integrate this innovative hydrogeological method to advanced methods of Environmental Economics and Social Sciences to create an understanding about (i) the indicators for sustainable subsurface development, (ii) above-ground environmental, economic, and social impacts, (iii) and how to make model results transparent. These methods will allow to determine threshold values that must be met to respect subsurface, environmental, economic, and social criteria for the sustainable management of geological resources in Belgium and beyond. Stakeholders from the public and private sector as well as local communities are involved in the research activities to better understand their perception on the sustainable and just development of the subsurface. Knowledge transfer tools tailored to stakeholders' needs will be created allowing them (i) to come to a structural vision on the sustainable development of the Campine basin, (ii) to manage and regulate interacting subsurface activities for the long-term, and (iii) to match subsurface use with aboveground sustainability objectives.

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  • Research Project

Resilient CLIMATE financing and investment taskforces (CLIMATEFIT). 01/09/2023 - 31/12/2026

Abstract

Urgent accelerated action is required to adapt to unavoidable and ongoing climate change. Climate-resilient investments must be substantially scaled up. Public budgets will not be able to address the adaptation financing challenge alone, financing from the private sector will also be necessary. CLIMATEFIT contributes to bridging the resilience financing gap by providing critical insight and building the capacities of Public Authorities (PAs) to attract and orchestrate various public and private funding & financing sources, and of Financing and Investment Entities (FIEs) to discover and access resilient investment opportunities. CLIMATEFIT will experiment on a mix of 20 territories in Southern, Eastern and Northwestern Europe in their transformational pathways towards climate resilience. The journey will start by taking stock of funding & financing barriers and enablers gathered in the Financing Landscape taxonomy. CLIMATEFIT will create an ingenious Manual for leveraging finance to, 1) co-design 20 innovative investment strategies allowing to identify sources of funding 2) develop 10 credible and scalable investment plans to help better negotiate and articulate financing streams and define investment concepts, and 3) pilot 4 bankable, tailored investment cases. CLIMATEFIT will build a Pathway for FIEs to accelerate finance, test refined methods to reward climate-resilient investment and apply smart adaptation funding and financing solutions. It will establish Local Resilience Taskforces (LRTs) composed of PAs and FIEs that propose a catalytic and systemic approach to resilience financing. Led by WCF, the high-level consortium will build capacity, co-create solutions with PAs and FIEs, and inform EU adaptation and sustainable finance policies. Finally, CLIMATEFIT aims to boost resilience financing in Europe by consolidating the dynamics in LRTs, and to promote and scale its research findings through the European Network of LRTs and its user-oriented One Stop Shop

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  • Research Project

Climate neutral agriculture through sustainable carbon farming (C-Farms). 01/10/2022 - 30/09/2026

Abstract

Coupled environmental, techno-economic and social impact assessment of the different Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) used in C-Farms. Large-scale NETs implementation will only happen if techno-economic, energetic, environmental and social barriers are overcome. We will assess economic and energy viability, environmental and social impacts in an integrated way by a multi-criteria assessment.

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  • Research Project

Past projects

Community-based biodiversity conservation in the Rusizi plain Burundi (RUBICOM). 01/09/2023 - 31/08/2025

Abstract

National parks in Africa are essential to protect megafauna, associated biodiversity and landscape. Park authorities hence restrict the use of natural resources by local communities, to avoid illegal land encroachment, poaching and ecosystem degradation. Yet, the persistent poverty, and the need for natural resources for their livelihood results in conflicts 1) between local communities and park authorities, and 2) between humans and wildlife. The RUBICOM project aims to provide the basis for a knowledge driven, sustainable human-bioversity coexistence in the River Rusizi plain of Burundi, focusing on aquatic and wetland ecosystems. Community based biodiversity conservation requires a stronger focus on optimizing conservation efforts that maximize synergies between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, and local communities being able to benefit from the ecosystem services the wetlands provide (e.g. for drinking water, fish, medicinal plants, drought resilience, flood protection). The project will focus on wetland biodiversity, and more specifically targets the hippopotamus (in short hippo) as a key or 'flagship' species for conservation. The hippo is a key species determining the ecosystem's primary production, water quality and plant biodiversity, but is also involved most directly in human-biodiversity conflicts, often leading to direct confrontations and injuries. The project aims to set a baseline for biodiversity status in the region, as well as improve understanding of people's perception on human-wildlife conflicts and potential for community-supported biodiversity conservation. This can serve as basis for developing solutions for a more community-based biodiversity management, and creation of locally embedded knowledge hubs that further strengthen these community-based biodiversity strategies, which is also key to developing future climate change adaptation strategies. Wetlands play a key role in developing a climate-resilient future for the community.

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  • Research Project

Scientific Chair SDG transition. 01/01/2023 - 31/12/2025

Abstract

In this chair, the Province of Antwerp is guided in the process of implementing the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). An intensive participation process has been set up to determine which SDG indicators best suit internal business operations, how the province can achieve the greatest impact on the SDGs and how the impact can be measured and monitored.

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  • Research Project

Providing operational economic appraisal methods and practices for informed decision-making in climate and environmental policies (PATTERN). 01/06/2022 - 31/05/2025

Abstract

The PATTERN project's general objective is to improve practitioners' capacity for decision making on climate and environmental policies, by developing an interactive online platform for the economic appraisal of policies and measures. To reach this general objective, the project will develop an operational integrated economic appraisal approach (WP3 and 4), deliver guidelines to bridge ex-post and exante analyses (WP1), build and demonstrate an effective participatory process to create 5 Theories of Change (WP2), build a European Community of Practice for climate and environmental policymaking (WP6), and create a One-Stop-Shop for all policy and decision makers to access and use the project results easily. PATTERN will thus provide decision-makers, stakeholders, and the public with more realistic and operational ability to systematically assess their policies and their consequences. It will provide a basis for improving (i) methodologies, techniques and models for conducting economic appraisal of climate and environmental policies (ii) the broader policy evaluation framework and practices currently used in European countries and their regions and (iii) tailored analysis and engagement strategies structures for the participation and co-creation with relevant stakeholders and key actors to enhance operational capacities and improve the impact of European policies on climate and environment. Overall, results obtained from in-depth ex-post and ex-ante analysis of the PATTERN's 5 case studies will bring new evidence on the effectiveness of various types of regulatory strategies, instruments and approaches for climate and environmental policies and insights for the design and evaluation of the implementation of major European policies.

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  • Research Project

Eringing nature back — biodiversity-friendly nature-based solutions in cities (BiNatUr). 01/04/2022 - 31/12/2025

Abstract

The BiNatUr project will explore the role of biodiversity and its linkages with regulating ecosystem services (ES) in urban aquatic nature-based solutions (aquaNBS), and its overall aim is to improve the planning, building, restoration, and management of aquaNBS, supporting the transformation to climate-smart, biodiversity-friendly, and sustainable cities. BiNatUr will explicitly focus on four main research questions: • How are biodiversity and ES of aquaNBS mediated by social, ecological, and technological factors? • Does this vary among cities in different regions of Europe? • How does biodiversity influence the regulating ES provided by aquaNBS? • How can urban planning effectively design, manage, and monitor the biodiversity and regulating ES of aquaNBS?

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  • Research Project

Chair of District heating grids 01/01/2022 - 31/12/2024

Abstract

The city of Antwerp has the ambition to be climate neutral by 2050. The role-out of district heating grids can help cities to accelerate the decarbonization and reduction of local emissions, by e.g. connecting waste heat in the vicinity of the city to the buildings in the city. In this project some open research questions with respect to the role-out and planning phase of such networks are addressed. Particular attention is paid to the robustness of the planning as circumstances tend to change along the way, with respect to demand, supply, infrastructural constraints and opportunities. On the short term a high temperature grid linked to a high temperature industrial waste heat plant is expected to have the biggest impact in a historical city like Antwerp, however on the longer term low temperature grids can become more interesting to reach a mature district heating market in which multiple suppliers can participate, reaching also a higher overall efficiency. Besides the research on planning, the ambition of this project is to bridge the gap between practice and academic research, supporting policy and role-out of future-proof district heating networks. The chair is funded by Fluvius and the city of Antwerp.

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  • Research Project
  • Education Project

Accelerating and upscaling transformational adaptation in Europe: demonstration of water-related innovation packages (TransformAr). 01/10/2021 - 30/09/2025

Abstract

Climate change impacts are here and now. The impacts on people, prosperity and planet are already pervasive but unevenly distributed, as stated in the new EU Blueprint strategy (European Commission-EC, 2019). To reduce climate-related risks, the EC and the IPCC agree that transformational adaptation is essential. The TranformAr project aims to develop and demonstrate products and services to launch and accelerate large-scale and disruptive adaptive process for transformational adaptation in vulnerable regions and communities across Europe. The 6 TransformAr lighthouse demonstrators face a common challenge: water-related risks and impacts of climate change. Based on existing successful initiatives, the project will develop, test and demonstrate solutions and pathways, integrated in Innovation Packages, in 6 territories.Transformational pathways, including an integrated risk assessment approach are co-developed by means of 9 Transformational Adaptive Blocks. A set of 22 tested actionable adaptive solutions are tested and demonstrated, ranging from nature-based solutions, innovative technologies, financing, insurance and governance models, awareness and behavioral change solutions. The project team, led by the University of Antwerp, gathers 22 partners from 11 countries and a well-balanced mix of sectoral and adaptation experts (5 RTOs and 1 SME), paired with 6 territories (4 local authorities and 2 charities), 8 additional solutions providers and 1 EU water-related NPO specialized that will support to structure a European Community of practice. Massive resilience increase and acceleration of transformation adaptation will be fostered by clustering various investors, testing bankable solutions, and defining viable (non-)commercial exploitation strategy for the TransformAr solutions, products and services.

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  • Research Project

City-centered approach to catalyze nature-based solutions through the EU Regenerative Urban Lighthouse for pollution alleviation and regenerative development (UPSURGE). 01/09/2021 - 28/02/2026

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most important worldwide challenge that humanity face, especially concerns to cities. Urban areas play a critical role, concentrating 80% of world production, consuming 70% of the available energy, and representing the largest polluting emitters, however they are also the main scenarios for social innovation (Seto et al., 2017). Major international initiatives, such as Horizon Europe and the European Green Deal, have set their objective to promote a systemic change and transformation of cities in order to achieve climate neutrality by 2030 (EC, 2020). UPSURGE provides a new development model for cities centred on Nature Based Solutions for renaturing urban spaces to address the challenge of carbon footprint and cities air pollution. UPSURGE bridges the gap between the existing knowledge based on Nature Based Solutions and their step-by-step practical implementation for regenerative development of cities focusing on air pollution alleviation and climate neutrality. To help European cities in this process, USURGE will provide an EU Urban Regenerative Lighthouse to serve as a reference framework and a reference network to accelerate, transfer and upscale the use of NBS and mainstream them into the agenda of urban policies through co-creation and co-design processes with citizens and other stakeholders. UPSURGE will provide fit-for-problem NBS together with supportive digital, and governance solutions for urban space regeneration deployed and tested in five real life demo cities in Europe (Belfast, Breda, Budapest, Katowice and Maribor). The role of UAntwerpen in UPSURGE focuses on quantifying and modelling urban ecosystem services provided by green and blue infrastructure in cities. Through the application of different modelling approaches on real case studies, the main ecosystem services produced by these implementations will be identified and quantified, as well as their relevance and impact to meet local needs and face climate challenges will be recognized. Based on these results, efficient and small-scale urban NBS interventions will be explored to enrich gray infrastructures in the provision of ecosystem services for addressing existing local needs and demands.

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  • Research Project

Financing for urban development projects near the Antwerp ring road (research lab: financing) 01/06/2021 - 15/03/2024

Abstract

The research lab financing has a twofold purpose. The first aim of the research lab is to gain insight into the demand for financing and the financing available for the Antwerp region. This demand is compared with the financing capacity of the governments involved on the one hand, and the possibilities for alternative financing and income on the other. The second aim of the research lab is to gain insight into the social costs and benefits of the projects of the southern Antwerp ring-road that are not yet part of the decided policy, as well as uncertainties that can influence the costs and benefits over time. In the first phase, attention will be paid to the tunneling, after which the developed method can be further rolled out to the other projects. The uncertainties and development options are mapped out using a decision tree, to examine which development path is expected to yield the highest social net benefit, taking into account other projects or factors that may influence the tunneling projects.

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  • Research Project

Exploratory research regarding the establishment of a working group on financing liveability projects for the Antwerp ring road 23/11/2020 - 31/01/2021

Abstract

Assessment of the existing documents that quantify the expected costs and effects of the liveability projects near the Antwerp Ringroad. Presentation of a structured overview of the information available. Stakeholder analysis to assess the expectation of a possible future working group on financing. Implementation plan of a working group on financing.

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  • Research Project

Real options for real urban projects. 01/11/2019 - 31/10/2023

Abstract

This interdisciplinary project aims to develop an innovative, approach for planning, design and decision making in complex spatial projects – e.g. transport infrastructure, urban development – and (urban) planning based on the real options theory from economics and finance. Contrary to the static rational model and "predict and control" approach, the real options approach offers a flexible way for coping with uncertainties through flexibility options that allow for project adjustments, making projects more adaptive to a dynamic and ever changing environment. However, a current theory-practice gap between real options theory and planning and design practice limits its practical value, accessibility, and applicability due to quantitative complexity and a lack of interference with real-life decision-making. Through the involvement of stakeholders and the use of pilot projects for the application of real options in Flanders, I will research the appropriate methods to tailor the real options theory to the needs of decision makers, planners, project managers, designers, etc. Throughout this project, (I) the research results will address several knowledge gaps in the existing literature on adaptive planning and design, real options theory and complex spatial projects; and (II) an accessible real options based framework (theories, tools, methods, models) will be developed to be used as a more flexible and adaptive approach in planning, design and decision-making.

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  • Research Project

Making small cities less dependent of subsidies: an integrated assessment of urban green infrastructure to support the development of functional business models. 01/11/2019 - 31/10/2023

Abstract

We live in a world where the impacts of climate change become more recognizable every year. Cities are the most vulnerable areas to these impacts while harboring 80% of all people in Europe. Through the high rate of urbanization, cities get denser and wider, which has the opposite effect on green space and nature. Nevertheless, humans depend for their survival on the services nature provides us. Paradoxically, the areas where 80% of us live, produce close to zero of these ecosystem services. In a response to climate change, human health needs and diminishing biodiversity, the concept of urban green infrastructure was introduced. Investing in permeable surfaces, green roofs, public parks, green walls, urban forests, green alleys and streets, community gardens, urban wetlands, etc. cities will lead to the necessary resilience, improved human wellbeing and at the same time enhanced biodiversity. Nevertheless, we see that cities (small cities in particular) are not inclined to invest in such projects, unless provided subsidies. Since the actual economic value and precise environmental benefit of green infrastructure is not measured, 'grey' infrastructure projects with a clear return-on-investment are still preferred. To overcome this barrier to green infrastructure implementation, we will generate an integrated framework that supports cities to city-fund such investments, without subsidies. Comprising clear multidisciplinary valuation methods, financing schemes and policy advice.

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  • Research Project

Real options for real urban projects. 01/10/2019 - 30/09/2022

Abstract

This interdisciplinary project aims to develop an innovative approach for design and decision-making in complex spatial projects (CSPs) and (urban) planning based on the real options theory (ROT) from economics and finance. The real options approach offers a flexible way for coping with dynamic uncertainties and to make projects more adaptive to a dynamic and ever changing environment. CSPs are large-scale projects (e.g. transport and urban infrastructure) that require a high investment cost, take many years to develop and involve multiple public/private stakeholders. Decision makers have to face a great deal of uncertainties and risks in CSPs. Predicting future private and social costs and benefits is difficult, since they can be impacted by multiple interacting uncertainties. Managing uncertainties is therefore an important task in project management. However, dominant practices that support decision-making in CSPs are deficient and inflexible. Cost benefit analysis (CBA) and environmental impact assessments (EIA) do not properly take into account how uncertainties impact predictions that result in different future scenarios. Traditional risk management therefore tries to push out risks and uncertainties as much as possible through risk avoidance, risk reduction or shifting risks to other parties. In nine out of ten projects, costs are underestimated and/or benefits are overestimated. In the past two decades, ROT has increasingly been advocated as an alternative and flexible approach in fields such as energy planning and (transport) infrastructure. The ROT integrates the concepts of irreversible decision-making, uncertainty and flexibility in the decision analysis. ROT considers flexibility options ("real options") as valuable to deal with multiple uncertainties. Instead of making every decision based on possibly inaccurate forecasts early in a project, keeping flexibility options alive can help a project better to adapt to possible future changes. This requires identifying and monitoring uncertainties and risks, rather than pushing them out, along with identifying flexibility options as responses to these uncertainties. ROT is a quantitative approach using methods and models that allow to quantify flexibility options' value, as well as determining the optimal timing (future scenario) for exercising options. It not only helps to better protect projects against possible downside losses, but also allow projects to capture the upside value of strategic and better balanced decisions References of real options applications in planning and design remain however limited. Furthermore, its proven (theoretical) potential and increasing popularity are in contrast to its lacking practical value, leading to a gap between real option theory and planning and design. We identified three sources for this gap in our review paper on real options applications in transport infrastructure and megaprojects: (I) simplification of case-studies leads to a simplification of the complex reality in which projects are planned, neglecting multiple interacting uncertainties and embedded flexibility options; (II) quantitative real options methods require (advanced) mathematical knowledge which decision makers often lack; and (III) real options applications lack interaction with practitioners from the field. How to bridge the real options planning/design gap? How to turn real options' theoretical methods and models into practical relevant methods and tools for CSPs and planning processes? Our main goal is to develop a ROT based framework – in cooperation with experts and practitioners from CSPs in Flanders – for adaptive planning that allows to better identify, assess, manage and monitor uncertainties and flexibility options in CSPs. This will help improve decision making and planning practices in Flanders, by making CSPs more adaptive and robust in a dynamic and complex environment.

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  • Research Project

Real options for real complex urban projects. 01/07/2018 - 31/12/2019

Abstract

This interdisciplinary project aims to develop a conceptual frame and a tool for dealing with risks in complex urban projects, based on real options theory from economics Urban designers and decision makers in urban projects face a great deal of uncertainty in the design and management of complex urban projects. As the time lap between design and implementation can take more than one or two decades, their designs have to be adaptable and flexible to cope with future uncertainties. In the practice of design and management of complex project the common approach however is still to ignore, contain or minimize risks. The Nobel prize wining idea on real options provide a novel and formal approach to risk and uncertainty. Instead of focusing on risk as a loss, this theory puts focus on the value of flexibility as a way to deal with multiple types of uncertainty. It provides formal tools to assess the value of future options. Based on the theory of real options, we develop a novel conceptual frame and relevant approach for complex urban projects. The conceptual frame will be applied to the case study of the covering of the ring road in Antwerpen

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  • Research Project